Open house visitor numbers have surged, new listings coming on market have risen, the pipeline of coming listings is filling up faster than last year, and the number of homes going into contract is climbing rapidly as the market wakes up.
Dramatically Improving Economic Indicators Suggest a Brighter 2024 Housing Market. In the last 2 months of 2023, the average, weekly, 30-year mortgage interest rate dropped from 7.79% to 6.61%.
A Sudden, Positive Shift in Economic Indicators. "For the third sixth straight week, mortgage rates trended down, as new data indicates that inflationary pressures are receding. The combination of continued economic strength, lower inflation and lower mortgage rates should likely bring more potential homebuyers into the market." Freddie Mac (FHLMC).
Rising Interest Rates Continued to Impact Supply & Demand in October, But Early November Brings Big Shift in Economic Indicators.
Economic indicators have been challenging since the fall selling season began: Interest rates continued to rise through early October and stock markets generally continued to fall from mid- summer, YTD highs.
“The surprisingly quick recovery [of the housing market] suggests that the residential real-estate downturn is turning out to be shorter and shallower than many housing economists expected after mortgage rates soared last year…There still aren’t enough homes for sale to meet demand.” The Wall Street Journal, “The Fall in Home Prices May Already Be Over,” [...]
Generally speaking, the market slowed in July, a common seasonal trend, and August is usually one of the quietest months of the year though last year, a sudden, but short-lived drop in interest rates kindled buyer demand in August.
Underlying market and economic dynamics in 2023 have been a mixed bag of often contrary and volatile factors - including downward-trending inflation; interest rates bouncing between 6% and 7%; unceasing uncertainty regarding what the Fed will do next; substantial rebounds in stock markets; bank, commercial real estate and debt-default crises; international political, economic and military [...]
Recapping the Spring 2023 Market. Median home sales prices have begun to recover from mid-winter lows, though remaining far below peak prices hit in spring 2022.
Looking at the overall Bay Area, buyer demand has continued to rebound from its late 2022 nadir. Though mortgage applications are still well down year over year, many buyers have accepted higher interest rates as the new normal and decided to move forward – and rates have recently been trending downward.