These are weekly market dynamics charts for the past 6 months for activity in the San Francisco home market — houses, condos, TICs & 2-4 unit buildings — through the week ending April 17th. The data is from Broker Metrics, which crunches the numbers from the SF MLS system.
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Home Listings Accepting Offers
The surge in market activity, as measured by properties going under contract, has remained at a very consistent and high level ever since it began in mid-January. My very rough estimate of deals that accept offers and then fall through (to come back on market) is somewhere in the 8% range.
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Percent of Listings Accepting Offers
Percent of listings accepting offers is one of the clearest indications of supply and demand. The last 12 weeks have all seen percentages above 6%. Prior to mid-January, there were no weeks above 6% (and not too many above 5%) since the tax credit crush of spring 2010. This indicates a very high, consistent level of buyer demand vs. available inventory.
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Median Sales Price
Weekly fluctuations in median sales price are not particularly meaningful, but here one can see the rebound in median sales price since the low points of January and February. Median price is often affected, as it was early in the year, by other factors than changes in value, such as inventory (especially as concerning the percentage of distress properties) and changes in buyer trends. It’s best to look at median prices over multi-month periods to discern real trends.
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New Listings Coming on Market
The number of new listings coming on market has been relatively stable as the 2011 market got underway, but it is still far below the surge of new listings one saw in September (as the autumn market began). In 3 weeks in September , 795 new listings came on market; in the past 3 weeks, 575 new listings have come on market. The number of new listings is not currently meeting buyer demand.
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Homes for Sale
The inventory of homes for sale is increasing very slowly and is far below the level seen in the autumn. High buyer demand plus low inventory equals a competitive market for motivated buyers.
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Accepted Offers vs. Expired Listings
As a market strengthens, the number of listings expiring or being withdrawn without selling typically declines, which is what we have seen in the last few months. However, plenty of homes still do not sell (most commonly due to being perceived as overpriced): for example, over the past 4 weeks, for every 10 listings that have accepted offers, another 4 have expired or been withdrawn without selling.